Climate models vary in estimating the specific magnitude and spatial variation of anthropogenic climate change; however, considerable agreement exists amongst all models that hydrologic changes will be paramount in semi-arid regions of southwestern North America [Seager, 2007].

Limited knowledge

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exists regarding the characteristics of extreme flood regimes and how they relate to climate change.

Our understanding of flood hazard is based upon flood magnitude-frequency curves derived from short gaged and historical records, limiting our knowledge of the risks associated with extreme flooding and how extreme floods will vary in magnitude and/or frequency with future climate change.

In the southwestern U.S., the gaged and historical record rarely exceeds one hundred years; therefore, large floods are statistically under-represented (Thornycraft et al., 2003).

Paleoflood studies produce flood chronologies that can be used to extend the record of extreme floods over hundreds to thousands of years, thereby improving flood-frequency analysis (e.g.

Benito and Thornycraft, 2005; Harden, et al., 2015) and maximum flood discharge-drainage area relationships (Enzel et al., 1993).

Subsequently, this improves overall flood hazard evaluations (House et al., 2002).

The project will utilize paleoflood information to improve flood frequency relationships and to research the best methods to increase understanding of the relationship between extreme floods and climate change in the Upper Colorado River Basin.

Methods including paleoflood field studies, geochronology lab analysis and flood frequency analysis will be used during the course of this research.